Dynasty Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Levels: Jahan Dotson and Mike Evans on the rise

I like to joke that the only OTA news or writer’s speculation we really want to respond to is stuff that confirms our previous beliefs. And it’s just kind of a joke: We all love our confirmation bias. Looking at two Tier 4 risers of my Dynasty wide receiver tiers, this is most evident with Jahan Dotson, but not so much with Mike Evans.

I was higher up on Dotson right after the draft and so loved the rave reports from OTAs. Beat writers, coaches, and even Dotson quarterback Carson Wentz have been raving about how good Dotson is. Speaking of Wentz, I’m not sure it should be taken for granted that Dotson is getting all these reps with Wentz and impressing, while Terry McLaurin holds out for a new contract.

But more important are the things I liked about Dotson, first of all this buzz. He has capital in the first round, incredible speed (4.43 at the combine), an elite College Dominator score of 44.3%, and according to Matt Harmon, he has the best hands in the class of leverage.

At this point, you may be wondering why consent was ever lower than mine in the first place. I think it’s mainly because he didn’t come out after his junior season. And that’s an entirely fair critique based on the recent history of first-round wide receivers. But I’m less touched by the subject considering what has happened in the world over the past three years, especially when Dotson earned a target stake of 28% and an average of 17 yards per catch as a 21-year-old.

McLaurin getting a new deal might be enough to drop Dotson one level, but he’d still be ahead of where he doesn’t. And if McLaurin were somehow treated, Dotson could legitimately be the best wide rookie receiver in the redraft leagues, which would knock him over at least one more level.

Mike Evans is against Dotson in almost every way. He is big and Dotson is small. He is aging (in footballing terms) and Dotson is still young. And I wasn’t a huge Evans fan for most of the off-season, especially since he was drafted as the # 1 wide receiver. 1 borderline and hadn’t even broken 1,100 yards since 2019. I was very worried that the goals would stay low but the touchdowns would regress.

It’s hard to hold the same stance with retired Rob Gronkowski and Chris Godwin looking more and more inclined to start slow as he recovers from a torn ACL. In fact, I have completely abandoned that position. The thing about Evans is that he’s an elite by target and has already demonstrated the ability to earn a high target share. We just haven’t seen it in the last couple of years because the Buccaneers offense was so talented. Suddenly, in 2022 it doesn’t seem to be that way.

Evans will be 29 before the season starts, so his Dynasty prowess is closely tied to how he can help contenders win now. With the recent developments leading him to WR8 in my restatement of the rankings, I believe he can now help a team a lot to win. I also believe he has an overall advantage for WR1 if things go really badly with Godwin’s recovery. But outside of that, it’s hard to see how Evans surpasses this level in Dynasty, simply because he will be 30 next season, meaning Evans is still a sale to rebuild teams, it might be better to wait until his first big game to make the deal.

Here are my updated levels of Dynasty wide receiver:

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