ADP Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Riser

As you may know, the average position in the draft (ADP) indicates the average position in which a player is drafted in more than one fantasy football draft. You can think of it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (which is actually a Low number ADP) means that a player is exiting the draft board early, and so you’ll need to draft him in the early rounds if you really want to.

Low or high ADP values, however, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has their own strategies and rates players differently depending on what we believe is most important to them in terms of skill. No matter what, though, ADPs are useful for knowing what the “average GM” you will be drafting against for each resource (in this case, the players) is. Now, with free agency and drafting well defined and only a few players left to sign, it makes sense to watch how ADPs have been varying over the past month as we approach the high season of the draft.

In this series, I will highlight players in each skill position who see significant fluctuations from mid-May to mid-June using data from FFPC drafts. Today is the time to look at three wide receiver risers.

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Wide Receivers – ADP Risers

While still available at a cheap / reasonable 185th-ish ADP overall, Van Jefferson continues to increase by the day and has done so in recent weeks to fill three full draft rounds in 12-team leagues with a rise of 37. + choices. Jefferson was barely used as a rookie in 2020 (31 goals) and obviously didn’t have a chance to go all out and become fantasy relevant. He was able to change that last year with a bulky workload alongside Cooper Kupp who scored 89 much healthier goals and carried 50 for 802 yards and six TDs.

ADP is getting higher and higher, but there is a very solid ceiling to reach sooner or later. This boils down to Jefferson’s role and position in Rams ‘WR rankings (from last year’s WR3 to … WR3 this year after the addition of Allen Robinson after Robert Woods’ departure), and some serious problems with both its catch (56.2%) and declining rates (6.7%). Those scores ranked in the top quartile among NFL receivers – in other words, it was the worst at capturing goals and avoiding falls by 75% of all NFL wideouts. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson are all veterans who will click and connect with each other from day one. Jefferson will most likely be the only one left out in terms of goals. Is fantastic? No. Is it bad? No, considering his ADP damn cheap. With a projection for a WR54 milestone in 2022 (for PFF), Jefferson is currently the 10th best WR in terms of potential ROI when comparing expectations with his ADP. Take the chance to steal a great training fill for your WR3 / Flex slot.

With Tyreek Hill exiting the city and heading down to Miami, the talk of the Kansas City Chiefs’ wide receivers has certainly gotten a little quieter than in recent seasons. KC has hired several players to strengthen the WR body without Hill by adding JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Skyy Moore to the team. Of course, as one has always been in the spotlight in Pittsburgh and the other is the flashy new toy, both of those men captured more attention and more off-season headlines than Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which was an afterthought for the casual fan of the NFL outside of Green Bay. Which doesn’t make any sense.

MVS may not have been a great performer for the Packers, but it’s not like he had ample opportunity to do something extraordinary either. With Davante Adams scoring 169, 127, 149 and 169 goals in the past four seasons, all the MVSs had to work 73, 56, 63 and 55 respectively. Last year, he didn’t even finish as GB’s WR2 on that front. , with Allen Lazard’s 60 goals five above his count – MVS has missed six games, though. MVS is a bit underrated in my eyes.

Yes, he’s not a bona fide top-tier receiver, but playing under perennial MVP contender Aaron Rodgers has averaged 8.6 and 7.9 FPPGs over the past two seasons with his only troubles to be found in the rate department. of catch (52.4% and 47.3% in those two years). This is something no one can help solve MVS, of course, but it’s shifting from Rodgers to another unstoppable and upsetting quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. No downgrades there and a potential role / goal upgrade will definitely increase MVS’s fantasy value next season. In other words, he drafts MVS to his ADP (around 130 in total) and continues until that figure reaches a price of around the 90th choice. We are talking about a lockout for a WR3 finale with an advantage for a mid-level WR2 season if the MVS-Mahomes connection clicks.

When was the last time the Patriots had a legitimate WR1 on their roster? In 2019, Julian Edelman finished WR9 in the PPR Championships, but before that he was only one of the top 20 receivers in 2018 and none (apart from Brandin Cooks and Edelman) have reached a top 15 finish for the Pats in the position by moving up to the 2012, when Wes Welker finished WR7. It’s been nearly 10 years of “wrestling” in the WR position – not that Tom Brady cared much, I guess – and things are looking to stay on the same path in the future. The main beneficiary is WR in the Pats depth diagram? Jakobi Meyers.

Meyers is the only player with more than 40 goals in the past three years among the New England wideouts. He clocked 41 years as a rookie, then 81 in sophomore and a career record of 126 last season playing with rookie QB Mac Jones. He has transformed into the full-fledged WR1 of the team and, more importantly, he is playing in that role as he was the team’s top scorer for two consecutive years (he finished as WR53 in 2020 and WR29 last year). If the target volume remains the same (no reason for this not to happen as NE only added DeVante Parker, who will most likely eat from the WR2-WR4 target cake more than Meyers’) and Meyers continues to develop, (the touchdown count must at some point it will regress positively, come on) so let’s look directly at a legitimate low-end WR2 with an added edge. He hasn’t gotten into that realm yet, I know, but Meyers is about to enter his prime and should continue to raise the bar.

The 170th choice is definitely a fantastic, theft-like price to pay for the production that Meyers can give you. Don’t hesitate if it’s still available this late in any of your drafts and don’t let it slip past 11th / 12th round if you don’t want to miss out on a weekly WR3 / Flex “set it and forget it” -it player with huge ROI potential.

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