2 Stanley Cup Final Bets 4

Stanley Cup Final 4: Avalanche vs Lightning Odds

Avalanche probability -105
Lightning probability -115
Above under 6 (+105 / -125)
Time 8pm ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get the updated NHL odds here.

The Tampa Bay Lightning took full advantage of their home ice in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, reducing the Colorado Avalanche’s lead to 2-1. Now, they can turn the final into a best-of-three series with another win in their friendly borders.

Attack was a common theme in the final, with all three games exceeding the total. However, both teams played a suffocating type of defense that lends itself to a low-scoring match.

Let’s dive into the matchup and find a bet value in Avalanche vs. Lightning Game 4.

Colorado Avalanche

No one has been able to reign in Avalanche this postseason. The Western Conference champions are scoring an average of 4.6 goals per game on their way to a 14-3 record. In doing so, the AVS have raised their scoring metrics beyond sustainable levels, putting themselves at risk of regression in the next few games.

Avalanche finished the regular season with an 8.9% five-to-five shooting rate, increasing to 10.7% across all strengths. So far this post-season, these metrics have been raised to 9.7% and 11.5% respectively. Colorado were held to two goals on Monday, which came with a man advantage. That was the sixth consecutive game in which the Lightning have kept their opponents at zero for five to five, an interval that includes just seven goals conceded.

This focuses on another trend we have captured from the AVS. The Colorado has performed its powerplay flawlessly this season, running one of the most efficient units in the league. However, as powerplay opportunities run out, their chances to score also run out.

A more disciplined effort than Lightning would prevent the Avalanche from having the additional scoring opportunities they rely heavily on.

Tampa Bay Lightning

As noted, it was difficult to score at the Amalie Arena this post-season. The team’s improved defense and Andrei Vasilevskiy are two factors shifting the balance in Tampa Bay’s favor and we expect both to be an emphasis in Game 4.

The Lightning have thwarted opponents at home, limiting visitors to six or fewer high-risk chances in six of nine home games. They are not making scoring chances easier to create, keeping opponents 18 or less in five out of nine.

This correlates with Vasilevskiy’s game improvement, who conceded just six out of five goals against five at home this postseason, resulting in a 97.2% save rate. He was equally impressive in stopping shots on all strengths, recording a save rate of 94.7%.

The scoring didn’t come naturally to the two-time reigning champions, but we saw them fielding a more effective attack at home. Tampa’s score rises to 3.9 goals per home game, compared to just 2.4 for the visitors.

It is evident that Lightning’s rely on line matching to hinder their opponents’ scoring and get their expert group out in more ideal circumstances. This should help them again on Wednesday night.

Avalanche vs. Lightning Pick

While we cannot ignore the importance of Tampa Bay’s defensive structure, no one has been able to resolve Vasilevskiy at home. Colorado were capped at two goals on Monday night and further correction could be expected as shot rates return to average.

Along with the Bolts line match at home, we expect goals to come at a high price tonight. This plays directly into Lightning’s MO at home, leaving them an advantage in supporting them on the money line.

Choose: Lightning-fast money clips (-110) | Less than 6 (-115)

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